Analysis of the New Portuguese and Spanish NECPs using CEVESA market model

A. Rodrigues de Oliveira, S. Doménech, J. Villar, T.F. Bessa, J.P. Tomé Saraiva, R. Gonçalves de Morais, B. Dávila-Isidoro, F.A. Campos

21st International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM25, Lisbon (Portugal). 27-29 May 2025

Summary:

The recent updates of the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) for Portugal and Spain have some significant changes compared to the previous 2019 versions, especially for the Portuguese side where a greater demand and renewable generation capacity are foreseen. This work assesses the impact of these new plans on the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) main outcomes using CEVESA market model. Simulation results allow the analysis of the expected generation mix and prices, CO₂ emissions, system cost, system adequacy, interconnections capacity usage, H2 demand impact and its contribution to provide balancing flexibility, under different simulation scenarios.

Spanish layman's summary:

Las actualizaciones de los Planes Nacionales de Energía y Clima de Portugal y España muestran cambios significativos, con Portugal anticipando una mayor demanda y energía renovable. Este estudio analiza el impacto en el MIBEL, incluyendo el mix de generación, los precios, las emisiones de CO2 y el papel del hidrógeno en la flexibilidad energética.

English layman's summary:

The updated National Energy and Climate Plans for Portugal and Spain show significant changes, with Portugal expecting higher demand and renewable energy. This study analyzes the impact on the MIBEL, including generation mix, prices, CO2 emissions, and the role of hydrogen in energy flexibility.

Keywords: National Energy and Climate Plans, CEVESA, MIBEL, Market model, Electricity prices.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050276

Published in: IEEE EEM 2025: Conference proceedings, pp: 1-5, ISBN: 979-8-3315-1279-8

Publication date: 07-Jul-2025.

Citation:
A. Rodrigues de Oliveira, S. Doménech, J. Villar, T.F. Bessa, J.P. Tomé Saraiva, R. Gonçalves de Morais, B. Dávila-Isidoro, F.A. Campos, "Analysis of the New Portuguese and Spanish NECPs using CEVESA market model", presented at 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market - EEM25, Lisbon, Portugal, 27-29 May 2025. In: IEEE EEM 2025: Conference proceedings, pp. 1-5, doi: 10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050276

IIT-25-076C